Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.687336 2.232459 2.972849 4.079088 5.739030 8.222126e+00 1.239281e+01
2025-01-05 1.150528 1.732768 2.670512 4.385863 7.683738 1.434801e+01 3.085023e+01
2025-01-12 0.770625 1.275974 2.201906 4.196858 8.963108 2.186252e+01 7.130120e+01
2025-01-19 0.526971 0.939117 1.776079 3.845822 9.864137 3.167399e+01 1.717072e+02
2025-01-26 0.401180 0.767812 1.592560 3.948485 12.490966 5.717380e+01 7.049201e+02
2025-02-02 0.329940 0.678226 1.548608 4.455722 18.124008 1.360148e+02 9.027015e+03
2025-02-09 0.281211 0.618952 1.554938 5.233354 28.510621 4.321196e+02 1.982097e+07
2025-02-16 0.232124 0.538706 1.461081 5.614861 40.186895 1.407652e+03 NaN
2025-02-23 0.186260 0.448863 1.287414 5.473290 49.120889 4.232267e+03 NaN
2025-03-02 0.149137 0.369782 1.107280 5.101527 55.536428 1.307566e+04 NaN
2025-03-09 0.129124 0.333110 1.060407 5.498933 81.460359 2.410561e+05 NaN
2025-03-16 0.112267 0.299885 1.008555 5.841274 118.915546 4.150786e+09 NaN
2025-03-23 0.098740 0.274143 0.981256 6.476556 200.877234 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.086948 0.249882 0.946831 7.079530 347.261418 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.073638 0.215713 0.843979 6.785425 448.342968 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.061908 0.183603 0.733510 6.188855 506.104953 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.054811 0.166345 0.691301 6.403135 823.298973 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.050514 0.158207 0.694558 7.360807 2049.075530 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.047347 0.153401 0.715310 8.852948 7766.956054 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.043193 0.143154 0.695565 9.614097 25174.452707 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.038401 0.128751 0.638959 9.362500 50813.468896 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.033860 0.114213 0.573147 8.663248 73731.292233 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.031389 0.108002 0.562370 9.446697 629539.792664 NaN NaN